To say that James Howard Kunstler's book, The
Long Emergency, affected me profoundly would be a gross understatement.
According to Kunstler, in twenty or thirty years time, the freeways and roads of our
nations will be barren of cars. Humanity, just as it has done in ages past,
will have contracted into intensely local communities who have returned to the
land, utilizing farming practices and knowledge accumulated over the past several millennia
- the knowledge that has largely been brushed off and forgotten over the past
100 years. I am referring to what Kunstler calls "The Long
Emergency:" the end of cheap and easily extractable oil.
"Peak Oil" is the term the oil industry
uses to describe the half-way mark of global oil depletion. Peak Oil is the period of time where oil extraction will be at its greatest output; where matching strides with the great demand of industry and society for the consumption of petroleum and petroleum-based products begins to falter. With the oil reserves of many individual nations
already past peak (including the
With intensive exploration for the world's remaining oil
reserves in full swing, humans are being forced to go to the margins to access this currently essential resource as we resort to
drilling in extraordinarily harsh environments such as the North Atlantic and
Arctic regions. If, in the foreseeable future, we continue to use this non-renewable energy source as intensively as we currently do (without factoring in the emerging
economic and industrial giants of
As global reserves of fossil fuels
decline, economies will begin to break down. Markets will become
unpredictable and unstable. Trade, on a large scale basis, may cease. The Long Emergency will most likely be punctuated by
violence as groups contest for remaining resources - this is already beginning to happen. We seldom realize just how great our dependency on cheap fossil fuels impacts our way of life. Without oil in the picture, there will have to be a
massive overhaul in numerous sectors, the most obvious being agriculture and
transportation.
North American agriculture, in particular,
will be hardest hit. Our agricultural structure currently relies upon a cheap
base of fossil fuels to provide consumers with a low-cost and bountiful selection of
factory-farmed meats, genetically modified produce, and ubiquitous junk food. Without a cheap base of fossil fuels, there will
be no large-scale transportation of goods across entire nations - simply
because there will be no tractor-trailers able to operate en masse (or period).
This means that, if we want to feed ourselves, we will have to return to
small-scale community agricultural practices. People, who never in their
wildest dreams expected to become farmers, will have to develop a lost sense of
stewardship with the land. It's been several generations now which have been
almost entirely cut-off from the land and the realities of small-scale agricultural
practices. This will change, or people will starve.
And what about transportation? We
currently possess neither the ingenuity nor the infrastructure required to make
large scale use of hydrogen as a replacement for petroleum. Hydrogen is expensive to manufacture and would still require the infrastructure associated with pumping,
which, of course, relies on a cheap base of fossil fuels. We may once again rely upon animals to serve as our main mode of transportation (or perhaps bicycles - at least there won't be cars to fight with and there is already a great road system in place).
Those geographical areas which rely most heavily
on the use of fossil fuels for their existence (such as
All across
Fossil fuel use has allowed the earth's
carrying capacity to artificially inflate from a sustainable maximum of one billion people
up to 7 billion people in a relatively short period of time. It is clear that when we have
used up our oil resources, there will be a very painful contraction in the
global population, with some areas poorer in resources suffering more than
others.
Many countries currently labeled as
"developing" will never achieve the title of "developed" as
we know it. Their arrival at modernization comes right on the cusp of the
downward slide in global oil and energy reserves. Perhaps this will be a
blessing for those nations and their citizens, as the transition from urban to
rural, or "urban-rural," will be less dramatic than the contraction
we will experience in the West. Many developing nations still have small-scale
rural economies intact which are based on sustainable agricultural systems already in place, which will
allow their citizens to carry on with life as usual - which is not to say that
this is necessarily a good thing or a bad thing, just reality. How humbling and humiliating it
will be for us to have once assumed that we had the upper hand.
Perhaps the greatest misconception held by a large majority of the general
population (and up until one month ago I would include myself in this group),
is that market demands will force human creativity to produce an
engineering and scientific breakthrough which will bridge our current ingenuity gap and end the coming energy
crisis even before it begins - a miracle event in the creation of clean, efficient, and easily renewable sources of
energy to power our SUV's, our large homes, and our wasteful lives. This
couldn't be further from reality and is a dangerous assumption to make in that
it robs us of the preparation time we will need to make the transition in
lifestyle and behaviour. We are currently very distant from being able to
bridge this ingenuity gap on the scale required for us to continue living life
in its current manifestation. Someday I might eat my words, but it appears as
though the oil age was a one-time deal - a finite, "one-time-only"
gift to humanity to make use of wisely. There is simply nothing as efficient
and as easily extractable as oil. This is not something we should hide from.
Some might argue as to whether or not we
have truly made the best use of this gift. Certainly, there are many aspects of
our quality-of-life which have been elevated using this base of fossil fuels
(life-saving healthcare, for instance). However, one might also argue that we have
squandered the one opportunity the earth has given us to educate ourselves
about how we can best live in harmony with the earth's bounty post-oil, choosing largely to use the gift of oil to build a world of facades - a cheeky and unsustainable lifestyle based largely on the appearance of wealth.
There is also the argument and
misconception that other natural resources will be able to step in and seamlessly take the
place of oil when oil is no longer economically feasible to extract. This argument is hollow,
simply because all of these other resources require a cheap base of fossil
fuels upon which to operate. Coal supplies are purportedly high enough to get
humanity through perhaps another 200 years of intensive energy usage. Coal can be used as is, or
converted to synthetic oil; however, coal extraction also requires a
platform of cheap oil to be cost-effective. This also does not take into the consideration the level
of pollution and environmental degradation the use of coal would produce if we
attempted to maintain our current lifestyles (early industrial
But
what about solar, wind, and biomass? These renewable resources are all seemingly viable replacements
for oil, but again, the reality is that building solar cells, maintaining wind
farms, and growing the extraordinary amount of biomass that would be required
is simply not possible without easily extractable oil. Solar cells and wind
farms require the production of parts, shipping, and other related
infrastructure demands that cannot be addressed with anything other than oil.
Nuclear power may be the one element which
will allow us, at best, to simply keep the lights on. Even with the extensive
building of new reactors, we would only be able to power a small fraction of
our modern society. The use of extensive nuclear would also create even more problems of nuclear waste disposal.
Despite the doom and gloom many are predicting
but few are preparing for, I feel quite at ease and comfortable with a return
to smaller living. In fact, I think this is a period of great hope for humanity,
if we can be flexible enough to re-invent ourselves as stewards of the land and
fully participating members of our own communities. I think The Long Emergency
will offer humanity the chance to regain an understanding of what it means to
live with dignity and respect. We will learn to re-appreciate our innate
talents, celebrating artistry, healing through natural means (modern medicine
and medications will also be in of the first items to go during The Long Emergency),
and a pastoralist’s relationship with the land. We will have to be adaptable
people with a strong reliance on natural processes, existing webs of life, and each other. There will
be a return to festival - celebration for celebrations sake - something any
visitor to a Third World country understands is eminently lacking in our own
society. We will lose much in the way of technological knowledge, expertise,
and material comforts, but we will have retained the vast bulk of knowledge accrued
over the past century as to how to best live a healthy, productive, and fulfilling
life. This description of future events, at least how I see them unfolding, is
not meant to be alarmist or to paint a gloomy picture. On the contrary. I feel
like there is much we can do to ready ourselves for the eventuality we will all
experience during The Long Emergency.
One major aspect of this preparation comes in the form
of permaculture. Last Fall I attended a presentation here in
Often, those
practicing permaculture live in small communities. David's community, which he has
named "melliodora" (after the flowers which line the perimeter of his
land), is a living, breathing, and thriving example of how such a community can
be run successfully - and in the heat of the Australian countryside too!
I
hadn't given too much thought to permaculture since David's presentation
(although it did leave a lasting impression in my mind), until I began reading The Long
Emergency and contemplating where life is going to take us in the next
short while. What can we expect? Will we help each other? Will we hog resources?
Will those without land go hungry? I think it would be a wise idea to begin
considering who we would want to join us in our own small communities - to
begin looking at the skill sets which would promote success in what is sure to
be a trying time. When The Long Emergency does hit, it would seem to me that we
will need to give ourselves every possible advantage in making communities
work, and a large part of that is the people we will be surrounded by.
It seems clear that those possessing land
will once again be at a distinct advantage, but now, instead of incessantly treating the land
as a ridiculous commodity in a never-ending cycle of greed and
one-upsmanship, land will be important again for the same reasons it was
important for our great-grandparents and earlier ancestors: to feed us.
Although it seems distant at the end of
the golden years of the "oil glut," The Long Emergency is an
eventuality which will happen to some degree even if people currently refuse to
believe so. There is no sense keeping our heads buried in the sand. Every individual
will have become "useful" again, in the sense that life in The Long
Emergency will not accommodate the gross complacency and apathy our current lives afford
us. The Long Emergency will be a true struggle for those who have nothing to
offer the collective. Contribution to the collective may come in the form of the
ability to work hard or their ability to design sustainable structures, for
example - regardless, it will be important to be able to offer SOMETHING.
As the earth heaves a tired sigh from the burden of carrying 7 billion people on its shoulders, we would be wise to take a long, hard look at our future to determine where we need to be, and what we need to do to arrive, dignified, at the destination which awaits us.

